Iran chokehold hands us and russia a $300 bn energy jackpot
The Strait of Hormuz is still closed, Brent is glued to $100, and the only barrels moving freely are American and Russian. Three weeks into the third Persian-Gulf war, Washington and Moscow are already counting the spoils: an extra $300 bn in windfall revenue this year if crude stays where it is, according to Business Insider España estimates shared with TechFlux.
The math is brutal for everyone else
Before the first missile hit on 28 February, Brent traded at $70 and WTI at $65. Today the front-month contracts hover at triple digits while 20-30 % of global supply sits behind an Iranian blockade. US output has never been higher—13.6 m b/d—and Russia, despite sanctions, still pumps 9.1 m b/d. Neither pipeline system touches Hormuz, and that geographic accident is now worth more than any trade deal.
Look at the cash pile. At $100 flat, gross oil income jumps to $496 bn for the United States and $299 bn for Russia in 2026, crushing the old 2022 US record of $413 bn reached when WTI averaged only $95. The Kremlin, gasping in January as Urals discounts sank below $65, now sells the same barrel at $89 after Washington quietly loosened sanctions to tame gasoline prices. Moscow’s margin per Siberian barrel: roughly $70. Permian breakevens run closer to $55. Quantity beats efficiency, but the Russian treasury feels it more—hydrocarbons still fund 35-40 % of federal revenue versus 3 % in the US.
Gas is the quiet massacre
Qatar’s 113-bcm Ras Laffan complex is half-idled by Iranian drone strikes, so Europe’s TTF benchmark has soared 80 % to €56/MWh. Every cargo diverted from the Gulf lands in Rotterdam courtesy of Cheniere or Venture Global. US LNG exports—254 bcm last year—are now the de-facto marginal supplier, pricing each molecule at panic premiums. Russia keeps its 161-bcm market share mostly through pipes to China, immune from tanker queues at Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia offers the only partial exemption: Aramco’s Red Sea outlets can swing 5 m b/d away from the strait, giving Riyadh a lifeline Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE do not have. Yet even if the kingdom’s spare reroute holds, the US-Russia-Saudi triumvirate would still control almost half of internationally traded oil and gas, a concentration not seen since the 1970s.
The irony? Washington pumps more money than ever from the very commodity it is trying to tame, while Moscow’s war chest refills just as Ukraine’s allies debate the next arms package. Tehran wanted to choke the West; instead it handed two rivals the biggest energy transfer of the decade. Keep the strait closed long enough and the word “windfall” won’t even cover it—$300 bn could double by winter.